The 2024 GEICO 500 will take place on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, and the 2.66-mile tri-oval is one of the premier tracks utilized in the NASCAR Cup Series. Its width and sweeping corners promote lightning-fast, side-by-side racing and the Next-Gen car has made fuel consumption and throttle control essential. William Byron won the last superspeedway race when he took the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 and Chevrolet has won three of the last four races at Talladega.
However, three Fords top of the 2024 GEICO 500 odds, with Joey Logano listed as the 9-1 favorite followed by Brad Keselowski at 10-1 and Ryan Blaney at 11-1. Byron is one of four drivers listed at 12-1 in the 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds with Sunday's race scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure tosee the latest 2024 GEICO 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 GEICO 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.
Top 2024 GEICO 500 predictions
For the 2024 GEICO 500, the model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he's an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 29-year-old is now a seven-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and he's finished top four in the NASCAR standings each of the last two seasons.
Bell has already scored a victory that seems likely to get him into the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs but he'll be eager to turn things around after a couple of finishes outside the top 15 in his last two starts. He should have a strong superspeedway setup to work with after starting fourth, leading 22 laps and finishing third at the Daytona 500. He finished eighth in the spring race at Talladega last year and has led laps in five of his eight Cup starts there with two pole appearances.
Another massive shocker: Joey Logano, a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and the Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Talladega NASCAR starting lineup. The 33-year-old is starting to turn things around after a disastrous start to the season where he finished outside the top 20 in four of the first five races, finishing 11th or better in his last four starts.
However, he's still only 15th in the 2024 NASCAR standings and the three-time Talladega winner has had a very difficult time there in recent years. Logano has only finished inside the top 15 once in his last eight starts in Talladega and he's finished in a worse position then he's started in eight of nine races there.See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Talladega picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds longer than 12-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the GEICO 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 GEICO 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine
Joey Logano 9-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Ross Chastain 18-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
Ty Gibbs 20-1
Chris Buescher 22-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Tyler Reddick 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Michael McDowell 35-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Noah Gragson 40-1
Corey Lajoie 40-1
Todd Gilliland 45-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Zane Smith 70-1
Justin Haley 70-1
Josh Berry 75-1
John Hunter Nemechek 75-1
Carson Hocevar 75-1
Shane Van Gisbergen 100-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Anthony Alfredo 250-1
Cody Ware 500-1
BJ McLeod 500-1
